Geological Society of America

T72 Climate Change Impacts on Society: Interface Between Earth Systems Science and Policy Making

Sunday, 18 October 2009
1:30 PM - 5:30 PM
D135/136

A MODEL FOR PARTNERSHIPS BETWEEN NATIONAL LABORATORIES AND COUNTY AGENCIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Paper number: T72-5
Program: Technical Sessions
Time: 2:30 PM – 2:45 PM

Authors

Gordon N. Keating Presenting Author
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Donatella Pasqualini
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Gerald L. Geernaert
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
Frank Perry
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM

Abstract

Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water use can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. Climate change adaptation efforts and investments at the local (county) level can be enhanced by partnerships with regional climate change impacts programs at the National Laboratories. The Laboratories can help counties make science-based decisions, and the local projects serve as important sources of data to better understand possible climate change adaptation paths.

An example of this kind of successful partnership is the ongoing sustainability initiative involving Sonoma County, California, and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In response to state law, Sonoma County, CA, has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, e.g. water, energy, and transportation. The partnership is designing a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, a LANL system dynamics (SD) model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. The project web portal hosts customized user interfaces to the model, helping stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation. The SD model and web portal are combined with analysis of energy demand, assessment of public works financing, development of governance structure, and implementation of a pilot RE insertion project. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. A generalized model for partnerships between National Laboratories and local climate change adaptation activities will be presented.