10 Modeling Invasive Species Location, Spread, and Ecological Impact
Tuesday, 8 June 2010
1:00 PM - 2:45 PM
Interlocken C
INVASIVE SPECIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Paper number: 10-2
Program: Special Sessions
Time: 1:15 PM – 1:30 PM
Authors
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Bethany BradleyAmherst College, Amherst, MA
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Tracy R. HolcombeFort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO
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Thomas StohlgrenFort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO
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Jeffrey T. MorisetteFort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO
Abstract
Species environmental matching models to predict species potential distributions are now commonplace, and are often based solely on climate data. Given that we are interested in the potential distribution and effects of harmful species, it is important how species-environment relationships might be affected by climate change scenarios, when they are included in the models. We provide an overview of how different aspects of global change may impact species invasions, either improving or decreasing the suitability of their habitat in the future. We discuss the climate change data needs to generate useful suitable habitat models for management, and the caveats related to the applications of these models with climate change. We then provide specific examples of species environmental matching models at various spatial scales that include climate change projections. Our models show both potential contraction and expansion of invasive species ranges, highlighting the need for different management strategies. An iterative monitoring and modeling approach is required to validate and improve the models over time.