T148 Communicating Geologic Hazard and Risk: Sharing Successes, Failures, and Lessons Learned

Tuesday, 6 November 2018
8:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Room 134

WHAT HAS HAPPENED CAN HAPPEN: COMMUNICATING COMMONSENSE WARNINGS ABOUT THE FUTURE

Paper number: T148-10
Program: Technical Sessions
Time: 10:25 AM – 10:40 AM

Authors

  • Victor Baker Presenting Author
    Univ of Arizona Dept Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ

Abstract

“What we got here is failure to communicate.” Such was the explanation provided by the Prison Captain in the 1967 movie Cool Hand Luke as he observed the suffering he had inflicted on the prisoner played by actor Paul Newman. Fifty years later “A Failure to Communicate” was clearly the cause for the $150 billion-dollar “Harvey” and “Maria” disasters. The names “Harvey” and “Maria” are shown in quotes because of the blame that is most commonly ascribed to Nature when it is human miscommunication that provides the principal cause for so-called “natural” disasters. It is the responsibility of scientists, and of geologists in particular, to emphasize that Nature is much more the solution than the cause of such disasters. While natural processes certainly contribute to what happens during extreme events, it is Nature itself that provides the most effective warnings for those very events. An excellent example was provided by the greatest dollar-damage disaster in recent human history: the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in northeastern Honshu, Japan. The greatest economic loss from that disaster resulted from false reliance on model-based probabilistic risk assessments coupled with failure to act upon geological evidence that demonstrated the reality of the risk. Much of the loss of life in the disaster resulted from over-reliance on government-prescribed warning and protection measures, coupled with failure to heed the warnings provided by actual occurrences of past tsunami. Geologists have a special responsibility in regard to hazards because they are best placed to convey Nature's message: "What has happened can happen!"

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 50, No. 6

doi: 10.1130/abs/2018AM-319849

© Copyright 2018 The Geological Society of America (GSA), all rights reserved. Permission is hereby granted to the author(s) of this abstract to reproduce and distribute it freely, for noncommercial purposes. Permission is hereby granted to any individual scientist to download a single copy of this electronic file and reproduce up to 20 paper copies for noncommercial purposes advancing science and education, including classroom use, providing all reproductions include the complete content shown here, including the author information. All other forms of reproduction and/or transmittal are prohibited without written permission from GSA Copyright Permissions.