T105 Climate Variability, Change, and Water Resources (Posters)

Monday, 5 November 2018
9:00 AM - 6:30 PM
Halls J-K

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR IRRIGATION AND GROUNDWATER IN THE REPUBLICAN RIVER BASIN, U.S.A

Paper number: T105-14
Program: Technical Sessions
Time: 9:00 AM – 6:30 PM

Authors

  • Gengxin Ou Presenting Author
    University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the United States’ High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that The simulation results suggest that in response to climate change: 1) water stress in the irrigation season will be exaggerated due to increased irrigation water demands; 2) recharge will increase in the non-irrigation season; 3) groundwater levels will decline more in areas with declining trends in the baseline; and 4) baseflow will increase because of increased groundwater recharge in the Republican River valley. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 50, No. 6

doi: 10.1130/abs/2018AM-320477

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