T127 Global Warning: Accelerating Rates of Change Forewarn of Catastrophic Impacts II

Monday, 5 November 2018
1:30 PM - 5:30 PM
Room 134

THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM ON THE NILE RIVER IS A WAKE UP CALL FOR EGYPT

Paper number: T127-10
Program: Technical Sessions
Time: 3:45 PM – 4:00 PM

Authors

Abstract

There are no permanent tributaries to replenish the Egyptian 1000 km portion of the Nile and groundwater is not a significant option. As temperatures rise and population expands concern for scarcity and competition for water is a prelude to the conditions that will become routine as the water quality and flow of the Nile diminish.

Urban sprawl within the Nile valley and delta is leading to the loss of fertile farmland cropped for over 5000 years. Agricultural use consumes water and degrades water quality. Reclamation of farmland and housing spreading on the desert causes water loss along with poorer water quality and less water returns. This results in salinization of once fertile lands, destruction of antiquities, homes and communities located on the margins just above the historic annual flood.

Nearly ten billion gallons of water a year is lost from evapotranspiration and seepage at Lake Nasser alone. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Sudan Roseires Dam will compound the losses.Water shortages are a growing concern as other Nile Basin countries seek opportunities for economic growth. Other nations are claiming rights to water and are now competing for its use. Egypt is under emotional stress. Longstanding treaties between Egypt and Sudan have been ignored; water scarcity, population, agriculture and consumption losses are rising. Lack of water and water shortages create the current political unrest and instability possibly resulting in war. Water is becoming more important than oil and natural gas.

Global warming will further aggravate this situation. Trans-boundary diversions of water for irrigation place a stress on the Nile River that is compounded by the warmer climate and population growth, placing additional strain on the water resources. Shortages exist in spite of the Climate Change factor. Adding climate change to this equation will make the political situation worse. How complicated is life going to get if we ignore climate change as well? These issues require international creative public policy.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 50, No. 6

doi: 10.1130/abs/2018AM-322926

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