2 Coastal Hydrogeology in an Age of Rising Seas

As sea levels rise, understanding hydrogeology is crucial in coastal areas. Seawater intrusion can lead to loss of potable or agricultural water supplies, and water table rise due to increasing sea level can lead to increased flooding and affect infrastructure.

Sunday, 19 October 2025
8:00 AM - 12:00 PM
HBGCC, 210AB

A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting Groundwater Levels in Coastal Agricultural Landscapes Experiencing Effects of Saltwater Intrusion

Paper number: 2-10
Program: Technical Sessions
Time: 10:30 AM – 10:45 AM

Authors

Abstract

Rising sea levels are altering groundwater dynamics in coastal regions, challenging the sustainability of freshwater resources for agriculture and increasing vulnerability to flooding. In this study, we explore the use of machine learning to identify key hydrologic drivers of groundwater level variability and to inform efficient monitoring strategies in data-scarce coastal settings. Using time-series data from a coastal field site experiencing the effects of saltwater intrusion, we trained Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression models to predict groundwater levels based on past groundwater levels, precipitation, soil water content, and surface water levels. Predictor influence analysis revealed that recent groundwater and surface water levels consistently dominated model performance, while direct precipitation inputs and soil moisture contributed less. Notably, models using only precipitation and surface water levels as inputs, supplemented with historical groundwater level data for training, maintained high predictive performance. These findings reflect the strong lateral hydraulic connectivity typical of low-lying coastal systems. The ability to predict groundwater levels using only precipitation and surface water level inputs demonstrates the potential for simplified, resource-efficient monitoring strategies in data-scarce agricultural settings.  Such approaches offer scalable, cost-effective tools for adaptive water management in vulnerable coastal agricultural landscapes that are experiencing environmental change.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 57, No. 6

doi: 10.1130/abs/2025AM-412742

© Copyright 2025 The Geological Society of America (GSA), all rights reserved. Permission is hereby granted to the author(s) of this abstract to reproduce and distribute it freely, for noncommercial purposes. Permission is hereby granted to any individual scientist to download a single copy of this electronic file and reproduce up to 20 paper copies for noncommercial purposes advancing science and education, including classroom use, providing all reproductions include the complete content shown here, including the author information. All other forms of reproduction and/or transmittal are prohibited without written permission from GSA Copyright Permissions.