52 Biosphere-Atmosphere Feedbacks in the 20th–21st Centuries: Modeling Uncertainties and Key Approaches
Thursday, 11 August 2005
1:30 PM - 4:30 PM
EARTH SYSTEM MODELLING AT THE HADLEY CENTRE: RECENT RESULTS AND FUTURE PLANS
Paper number: 52-1
Program: THEME SESSIONS
Time: 1:30 PM – 2:10 PM
Authors
Abstract
Interactions between climate, the carbon cycle (including terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems), atmospheric chemistry and aerosols form a complex web of feedbacks and dependencies. Representing these processes in 21st century climate projections is one of the biggest scientific challenges in Earth Systems research, and is a key aim of the next generation of Hadley Centre climate models.
Here I will present results from recent research, which includes:
- acceleration of climate change by positive feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle
- feedbacks between planktonic DMS production, aerosols, cloud formation and climate (the so-called CLAW hypothesis)
- climate changes induce vegetation changes and hence changes to isoprene emissions and surface ozone, and also dust production
- increasing ozone leads to a decrease in vegetation productivity
- climate changes lead to both increased methane production through changes to northern wetlands, and decreased atmospheric lifetime of methane through increased water vapour
I will also present future plans to further couple together components of the Earth System, such as:
- interactions between dust production and iron-fertilisation of ocean biology
- acidification of the ocean by absorbed anthropogenic CO2
- impact of climate change on the atmospheric chemistry of OH and H2O2 and hence on sulphate aerosol burdens